Power Supply Procurement Plan

2024

 

SAN FERNANDO ELECTRIC LIGHT AND POWER CO., INC

 

Historical Consumption Data

 

Peak Demand increased from 45 MW in 2000 to 164 MW in 2023 at a rate of 5.9% due to consumer growth. MWh Offtake increased from 260,610 MWh in 2000 to 878,421 MWh in 2023 at a rate of 5.5% due to consumer growth. Within the same period, Load Factor ranged from 57% to 71%. There was an abrupt change in consumption on 2020 due to COVID and Lockdowns.

 

MWh Output increased from year 2000 to year 2023 at a rate of 5.6%, while MWh System Loss decreased at a rate of 2.44% within the same period.

 

Historically, Transmission Loss is at 2.98%. System Loss ranged from 4.02% to 8.33%.

 

 

 

Residential customers account for the bulk of energy sales at 54.21% due to the high number of connections. In contrast, Street Lights customers accounted for only 0.44%% of energy sales due to the low number of connections.

 

 

 

 

For 2023, the total Offtake for the last historical year is higher than the quantity stipulated in the PSA. The PSA with GNPD accounts for the bulk of MWh Offtake.

 

 

 

WESM Offtake increased] from 0 MWh in 2022  to 100% supply starting July 2023. This is because SFELAPCO sources 100% of energy supply from the WESM in this period.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Previous Year's Load Profile

 

 

 

Based on the Load Duration Curve, the minimum load is 55 MW and the maximum load is 140 MW for the last historical year.

 

 

 

Peak MW occurred on May due to high temperature. Peak daily MWh occurred in May due to hot temperature. As shown in the Load Curves, the available supply is lower than the Peak Demand.

 

 

 

The Non-coincident Peak Demand is 178 MW, which is around 65% of the total substation capacity of 323.75 MVA at a power factor of 85 percent. The load factor or the ratio between the Average Load of 149 MW and the Non-coincident Peak Demand is 65% of. A safe estimate of the true minimum load is the fifth percentile load of 64.49 MW which is 36.23% of the Non-coincident Peak Demand.

 

 

The substations loaded at above 70% is Magdalena. This loading problem will be solved by increasing the capacity of one Substation (Baliti) and then transfer its load to other substations.

 

 

Forecasted Consumption Data

 

 

The Peak Demand was forecasted using historical average increase at the rate of 4%. Monthly Peak Demand is at its lowest on the month of January due to cold weather. In general, Peak Demand is expected to grow at a rate of 4% annually.

 

 

The available supply is generally below the Peak Demand. This is because our PSA's are still pending with the ERC and we buy 100% from the WESM.

 

 

 

Of the available supply, the largest is WESM which supplies 100%

 

 

The first wave of supply procurement will be for 70 MW planned to be available upon ERC approval.

 

 

 

Currently, there is under-contracting 10-15%. The highest target contracting level is 90% which is expected to occur on 2030. The lowest target contracting level is 85% which is expected to occur on 2029.

 

 

 

Currently, there is under-contacting by 35 MW. The highest deficit is 40 MW which is expected to occur on the month of September. The lowest deficit is 5 MW which is expected to occur on the month of May. The deficit will be bought from the WESM.

 

 

MWh Offtake was forecasted using historical average growth rate. The assumed load factor is 65%.

 

System Loss was calculated through a Load Flow Study conducted by Engr. Jennifer Panlilio using load Flow Analysis and Synergy software. Based on the same study, the Distribution System can adequately convey electricity to customers.

 

 

 

MWh Output was expected to grow at a rate of 4% annually.

 

 

 

Transmission Loss is expected to be at 2.98% while System Loss is expected to range from 4.5% to 5.5%.

 

 

 

 

 

Power Supply

 

 

 

 

The PSA with ASPI filed with ERC under Case No. 2023-122 RC was procured through CSP. It was selected to provide for baseload requirements due to above 90% supply. Historically, the utilization of the PSA is 100%.

 

 

The PSA with MPPCL filed with ERC under Case No. 2024-003 RC was procured through CSP. It was selected to provide for intermediate requirements.

 

 

There is no planned CSP for the year 2024.

 

 

Captive Customer Connections

 

 

 

The number of 3,600 connections is expected to grow at a rate of 2.78% annually. Said customer class is expected to account for 90% of the total consumption.